The reliability of macro-economic forecasts

In Germany since early 1981 a consensus has emerged predicting that an economic recovery is due for the second half of the year. This forecast of an upturn was put-forth for 1981 and for 1982. Despite these consensus, the forecasts proved to be wrong. Nonetheless in autumn 1982 the consensus forecast for 1983 again explicitly included a recovery starting mid-year, and again the forecast seems to be proving to be wrong. This time, however, the failure is not forecasting a recovery, only to find out its not there, but rather miscalculating in the other direction as the economic recovery has already been' on the move since the beginning of 1983.

Strict finitism, feasibility, and the sorites

This paper bears on four topics: observational predicates and phenomenal properties, vagueness, strict finitism as a philosophy of mathematics, and the analysis of feasible computability. It is argued that reactions to strict finitism point towards a seman- tics for vague predicates in the form of nonstandard models of weak arithmetical theories of the sort originally introduced to characterize the notion of feasibility as understood in computational complexity theory. The approach described eschews the use of non-classical logic and related devices like degrees of truth or supervaluation. Like epistemic approaches to vagueness, it may thus be smoothly integrated with the use of classical model theory as widely employed in natural language semantics. But unlike epistemicism, the described approach fails to imply either the existence of sharp boundaries or the failure of tolerance for soritical predicates. Applications of measurement theory (in the sense of Krantz et al. 1971) to vagueness in the nonstandard setting are also explored

Bernays and the completeness theorem

A well-known result in Reverse Mathematics is the equivalence of the formalized version of the Gödel completeness theorem [8] – i.e. every countable, consistent set of first-order sentences has a model – and Weak König's Lemma [WKL] – i.e. every infinite tree of 0-1 sequences contains an infinite path– over the base theory RCA0. It is less well known how the Completeness Theorem came to be studied in the setting of second-order arithmetic and computability theory. The first goal of this note will be to recount these developments against the backdrop of the latter phases of the Hilbert program, culminating in the publication of the second volume of Hilbert and Bernays’s [13] Grundlagen der Mathematiks in 1939. This work contains a detailed formalization of the Completeness Theorem in a system similar to first-order Peano arithmetic [PA] – a result which has come to be known as the Arithmetized Completeness Theorem. Its second goal will be to illustrate how reflection on this result informed Bernays’s views about the philosophy of mathematics, in particular in regard to his engagement with the maxim “consistency implies existence”

Algorithms and the mathematical foundations of computer science

The goal of this chapter is to bring to the attention of philosophers of mathematics the concept of algorithm as it is studied incontemporary theoretical computer science, and at the same time address several foundational questions about the role this notion plays in our practices. A view known as algorithmic realism will be described which maintains that individual algorithms are identical to mathematical objects. Upon considering several ways in which the details of algorithmic realism might be formulated, it will be argued (pace Moschovakis and Gurevich) that there are principled reasons to think that this view cannot be systematically developed in a manner which is compatible with the practice of computational complexity theory and algorithmic analysis

NEGLIGENCE-PROOF OF CAUSATION

Decedent, a passenger on defendant\u27s railroad was bound for X Terminal. The car doors were open and a trainman called out, X Terminal, next, but the train stopped in the dark at point Y before reaching the announced destination to allow another train to pass. Decedent\u27s body was found near point Y. Suit was brought by decedent\u27s widow under the state wrongful death statutes. The lower court held that the plaintiff\u27s failure to show that decedent left the train at point Y was a fatal gap in the causal chain, and gave judgment for the defendant notwithstanding the verdict. Held, reversed with directions to enter judgment on the jury verdict. Plaintiff may rely on circumstantial evidence to prove the causal connection between defendant\u27s wrongful act and decedent\u27s injury. Williams v. Reading Co., (3d Cir. 1949) 175 F. (2d) 32

Breitbart, Steve Bannon and Donald Trump against the world

As we reach the close of the 2016 presidential campaign, Walter Dean Burnham writes that the unstable dynamics of the election have their roots in a crisis of legitimacy for American politics as a whole. With his calls to return to a more idealized past of American greatness, Donald Trump has set himself up as a “savior with a time machine”. Trump’s appeal to less-educated working class voters has also been further enhanced by the anarchic (or even fascistic) rhetoric of Breitbart’s Steve Bannon

In 2017, Trump and the ultra-right wrecking crew will continue to roll back history

In his final post on the aftermath of the 2016 election, Walter Dean Burnham looks at where the Trump administration and its allies might be leading the US. Looking to history to analyze the present, he writes that the American political universe is based on a liberal individualist tradition, which led to a depoliticization of left-wing voters by the 1960s. This in turn allowed the Republican Party to shift the political spectrum to the right in the 1980s and beyond, a shift which eventually led to the rise of Donald Trump

This year’s upside-down election is part of a political realignment which encompasses both parties, and is fueled by public rancor.

In his final of three articles commenting on major political realignments, Walter Dean Burnham looks at the 2016 election picture as of early summer 2016. He writes that on the Republican Party side, establishment candidates such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush have been flatly rejected by the party’s base, in favor of Donald Trump who is rapidly filling the GOP’s voter vacuum. For the Democrats, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has the support of the party establishment, the insurgent candidacy of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders points to the party’s own ‘runaway electorate’